Title: The Black Swan, Second Edition Pdf The Impact of the Highly Improbable
The Black Swan is a stand-alone book in Nassim Nicholas Taleb's landmark Incerto series, an investigation of opacity, luck, uncertainty, probability, human error, risk, and decision-making in a world we don't understand. The other books in the series are Fooled by Randomness, Antifragile, Skin in the Game, and The Bed of Procrustes.
A black swan is a highly improbable event with three principal characteristics: It is unpredictable; it carries a massive impact; and, after the fact, we concoct an explanation that makes it appear less random, and more predictable, than it was. The astonishing success of Google was a black swan; so was 9/11. For Nassim Nicholas Taleb, black swans underlie almost everything about our world, from the rise of religions to events in our own personal lives.
Why do we not acknowledge the phenomenon of black swans until after they occur? Part of the answer, according to Taleb, is that humans are hardwired to learn specifics when they should be focused on generalities. We concentrate on things we already know and time and time again fail to take into consideration what we don't know. We are, therefore, unable to truly estimate opportunities, too vulnerable to the impulse to simplify, narrate, and categorize, and not open enough to rewarding those who can imagine the "impossible".
For years, Taleb has studied how we fool ourselves into thinking we know more than we actually do. We restrict our thinking to the irrelevant and inconsequential, while large events continue to surprise us and shape our world. In this revelatory book, Taleb explains everything we know about what we don't know, and this second edition features a new philosophical and empirical essay, "On Robustness and Fragility", which offers tools to navigate and exploit a Black Swan world.
Elegant, startling, and universal in its applications, The Black Swan will change the way you look at the world. Taleb is a vastly entertaining writer, with wit, irreverence, and unusual stories to tell. He has a polymathic command of subjects ranging from cognitive science to business to probability theory. The Black Swan is a landmark book - itself a black swan.
Includes a bonus pdf of tables and figures.
Praise for Nassim Nicholas Taleb
"The most prophetic voice of all." (GQ)
Praise for The Black Swan:
"[A book] that altered modern thinking." (The Times, London)
"A masterpiece." (Chris Anderson, Editor-in-chief of Wired, author of The Long Tail)
"Hugely enjoyable - compelling...easy to dip into." (Financial Times)
PLEASE NOTE: When you purchase this title, the accompanying PDF will be available in your Audible Library along with the audio.
Too demeaning of others--even if they might deserve some blame for things Already lots of reviews on this work but I have an additional thought or two. I would have liked to have given this book a higher rating but Dr. Taleb's incessant jibes at mathematicians, economists, those working withing the financial markets, and even biologists (!!!) quickly gets VERY old. There are sections where every single page has some reference to this field or that which, in his estimation, is populated by nothing but the village idiots.I can certainly understand him taking exception with those who have, at least in the lead up to 2008, steered us onto the financial rocks, but his beating of the same drum gets quickly stale. Here I think of the maxim that at some point you have to fix the problem and not the blame. This book could have been a hundred pages shorter--perhaps a 20,000 word piece of long-form journalism.He also drifts to and fro quite a bit in his writing. While I truly enjoy his erudition and a touch of the circumlocution, this work would have been much better served if he had kept to the task at hand.There are a couple of redeeming aspects to his effort however. His admonition that it is better to prepare than it is to predict are wise words in any walk of life and here he frames them nicely.Also, in the epilogue he lists his "Ten principles for a black swan robust society." These are wonderful admonitions such as society should not socialize the losses and privatize the gains. Capitalism is about rewards and punishments not just rewards is another good point. This short section is well worth your time.I also liked his introduction to the reader of the concept of iatrogenics--making sure no lasting harm is done while trying to help.This would have worked much better in 20K words and without the snide comments regarding others and their fields of study. I think an admonishment that fits here is the "play the ball not the man."Neal Schier - June 2018An everyman's approach to a very subtle topic This is both an interesting book from the topic, how we tend to misinterpret and miss highly unlikely events, but also it is a statement to human resilience based on Mr. Taleb's history in emigrating from Lebanon. His views of the world are consistently positive and upbeat. Many of us could learn a lot from Nassim Taleb.The book covers both the math as well as the narrative intuition for understanding rare events and why we tend to underestimate both their frequency and effects on our best laid plans.The book is full of hundreds of great examples, and it is written in a very approachable style.Whether you are a hard core statistician or just someone interested in statistics, this is a great book for you.Entertaining It's an entertaining book although the writing style leaves much to be desired. The main points are the contempt for any other called expert (any but the author who paints himself insufferable) in regards to the a priori information about models of the world and how one can be more open to the notion of outliers.
Tags: B07KRM6L52 pdf,The Black Swan, Second Edition pdf,The Impact of the Highly Improbable pdf,,Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Joe Ochman, Random House Audio,The Black Swan, Second Edition: The Impact of the Highly Improbable: With a new section:"On Robustness and Fragility": Incerto, Book 2,Random House Audio,B07KRM6L52
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